How early warning systems are saving lives in a changing climate

“You were right – it’s raining.” A farmer in Ghana sends this message after receiving a WhatsApp weather alert.

This simple exchange represents something much larger. It’s the final link in a chain connecting satellites, AI, and communities that increasingly need timely information to adapt to a changing climate.

The scale of the challenge

2024 was the hottest year on record in at least 175 years, resulting in 125 million people displaced by water-related disasters and economic losses exceeding $200 billion annually. As floods and droughts intensify, early warning systems are becoming more and more essential.

For the Waterproof podcast episode Early Warnings!, host Tracy Metz spoke with innovators working on these challenges daily – from social media monitoring in the Philippines to satellite forecasting in southern Africa. What connects them is not only their focus on early warning systems, but also support from Partners for Water.

Technology meets reality

In the podcast episode, Jurjen Wagemaker of FloodTags describes a moment that illustrates the value of early warning systems. His team had just delivered their monitoring system to an operation centre in the Philippines. Wagemaker shares: “We were in the room next to the operations centre, and all of a sudden there was a big activity next door. Everybody was pointing to the new system. I went into the operation room and I asked, what’s happening?” Apparently, FloodTags had detected flooding that the local authorities hadn’t yet registered. Within minutes, the operation centre was able to verify the information and begin coordinating their response.

FloodTags collects data from social media platforms worldwide, processing around 5 million observations monthly and identifying about ten significant floods daily. Why social media? Because floods begin on the ground, and that’s often where reality surfaces first.

For instance, in Semarang, Indonesia, social media revealed why a critical pump wasn’t working during a flood: the key to the pump house was missing. These operational realities provide not only real-time information for immediate response, but also insights that can improve future processes.

When data creates trust

Sindy Mthimkhulu, Executive Secretary of INMACOM, manages shared water resources between South Africa, Eswatini, and Mozambique – 45,000 square kilometres serving 3.5 million people. “When water is released upstream and someone downstream isn’t aware, they can be caught off guard,” she explained. “Early warning allows us to alert people before they’re at risk.”

The solution they use is called GLOW – the Global Water Availability and Demand Forecasting Service. Developed by Dutch companies Hydrologic and FutureWater with Partners for Water support, GLOW uses satellite data to predict water conditions up to three months ahead.

GLOW does not only provide forecasting. It also supports building trust. Thanks to this innovative system, all three countries access the same real-time data through a shared platform. When water levels change, everyone sees it simultaneously. “We’re not fighting over water anymore,” Sindy noted. “When Mozambique sees less water arriving, they can also see it’s not being held upstream – it’s simply not available. That transparency builds trust.”

From data to local action

Advanced forecasting technology is valuable, but it only becomes useful when it reaches the people who need it in a form they can act upon. That might mean a WhatsApp message telling a farmer in Ghana about approaching rain, a text alert advising urban residents to move to higher ground, or an announcement broadcast at a local market.

Dorien Lugt of HKV works on urban flooding early warning systems in countries like Ethiopia and Ghana. She describes the work as “a process, not a project – step-by-step development of better early warning capacity.”

That process involves three interconnected stages. First, establishing the data infrastructure for accurate forecasting. Second, operationalising those forecasts within government systems. Third, ensuring the warnings reach communities through appropriate channels. In some places that’s WhatsApp, in others it’s loudspeakers at markets or announcements through religious institutions. What matters is that it’s effectively tailored to how people actually receive and trust information.

The opportunity to respond

It’s worth acknowledging that early warning systems exist because we’re responding to climate change, not yet solving it. These technologies address the symptoms of a warming planet rather than the underlying causes. But as extreme weather events continue to increase in frequency and severity, they represent a crucial part of our adaptation strategy.

Whether it’s a farmer checking WhatsApp, someone verifying river levels, or communities preparing for floods, the need is the same: information enabling timely action. Early warning provides the opportunity to respond before crisis strikes. In a changing climate, that opportunity makes all the difference.

🎧 This article is based on the Waterproof podcast episode Early Warning!, produced by Partners for Water. Listen to the full episode for the complete stories about impactful early warning systems.