How flash flood forecasting is saving lives in Malawi

Malawi is increasingly grappling with severe flooding. As climate change intensifies, rainfall is becoming more extreme, leaving communities with little time to prepare. While early warning systems exist, they fall short when it comes to dealing with flash floods. Processing takes too long, predictions lack precision and crucial data is often inaccessible due to licensing restrictions and costly software. The result? People receive warnings too late or not at all, resulting in potential loss of life and damage to infrastructure and possessions.

Time for change. With support from the Partners for Water subsidy scheme, an effective collaboration between Royal HaskoningDHV (RHDHV), Malawi’s Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS), the Department of Water Resources (DWR), Malawi Red Cross Society (MRCS) and the Netherlands Red Cross’ data and digital team, 510 (NLRC 510) has developed a revamped early warning system. By integrating improved forecasting models into the open-source Impact-Based Forecasting Portal (IBF), this initiative is setting a new benchmark for flood management in Malawi and beyond. The new system expands on what was already in place, enhancing key aspects that needed strengthening.

Building on the foundation of early warning systems

Malawi has long recognised the importance of early warning systems in protecting communities from flooding. However, many of the existing tools faced limitations that reduced their effectiveness, especially in the case of flash floods:

• Generalised predictions – Global datasets often lacked the local detail needed for accurate, on-the-ground forecasts.
• Delays in processing – In rapidly changing weather conditions, timely data delivery is critical. In the case of flash floods, most warnings arrive too late.
• Limited access – Many systems require costly licenses or are too complex for widespread use.
• Communication gaps – Even when warnings are issued, they do not always reach the right people, or be clearly understood at the community level.

By identifying these areas for improvement, the project team was able to develop a system that is faster, more accurate and inclusive.

The solution: IBF with advanced forecasting models

The team recognised the potential of NLRC 510’s Impact-Based Forecasting Portal (IBF) and wanted to expand its capabilities. Unlike many other tools, the IBF System does not just provide raw data; it offers an intuitive digital environment where all relevant information is consolidated. This enables disaster managers to make timely, well-informed decisions.

To make a real difference, IBF required an upgrade: A Flash Flood Forecasting Module. This new feature integrates local flood models with external rainfall data, significantly improving accuracy. The team had already developed advanced hydrodynamic and hydrological models for Karonga and Rumphi, two flood-prone cities, but they lacked a way to integrate these models into a functioning early warning system.

Partners for Water then stepped in on request, co-financing further development. As a result, IBF can now handle flash floods more effectively and is scalable for other regions facing climate-related challenges.

From forecasting to action: making warnings work

A high-tech forecasting system is great, but if people do not act on its warnings, it is useless. That is why IBF was designed with accessibility and usability in mind. In collaboration with UNICEF, MRCS and NLRC 510, several strategies were developed to ensure warnings lead to action such as:

• WhatsApp alert groups – Local meteorologists and disaster responders send daily updates and emergency warnings in real time.
• Local early warning systems – Megaphones, radio broadcasts and motorbike couriers ensure that even those without smartphones receive timely alerts.
• Warnings in local languages – By translating alerts into regional dialects, everyone can understand what is happening and what they need to do.

Thanks to this combination of digital and traditional communication channels, the system reaches even the most remote villages. People can now take precautionary measures and better prepare for extreme weather events.

Impact so far – and what comes next

With the new IBF System in place, Malawi is now far better equipped to handle flash floods. The system has already proven effective, issuing timely warnings that allowed authorities and residents to take preventive action.
However, there is still work to be done. The next steps for the government and local organisations in Malawi include:

• Expanding IBF to include more cities and rural areas.
• Further improving sensor networks to enhance real-time data accuracy.
• Securing long-term funding and full government adoption.

A system that endures

Where previous projects have struggled due to financial or technical constraints, IBF has been designed with sustainability in mind. The system is open-source and freely accessible, eliminating the need for costly software licenses. Additionally, the project has installed multiple monitoring stations equipped with rain gauges and water level sensors that continuously collect and process data.

However, funding remains a challenge. Sensors require maintenance, SIM cards need replacing and without structural resources, the system’s long-term effectiveness could be at risk. Herman de Jonge (RHDHV) stresses the importance of long-term financing, whether through government support, humanitarian funds, or the Early Action Protocol of MRCS, which releases emergency funding when critical thresholds , such as number of people at risk are reached.

A model for the future

The impact of this project extends well beyond Malawi. The technology behind IBF is scalable and can be deployed in other climate-vulnerable regions. Moreover, the system is flexible and can be adapted to forecast other disasters, such as droughts, cyclones, or even diseases like malaria and dengue. This aligns closely with the United Nations Early Warnings for All programme, which aims to ensure that all communities worldwide have access to reliable early warning systems.

With an innovative approach and targeted investment in technology and accessibility, this project is setting a new standard in disaster prevention. With sustained resources, its impact could reach far beyond Malawi helping thousands, if not millions, of people prepare for an increasingly unpredictable climate.