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Flash floods can develop within hours, leaving communities with little time to prepare. In Northern Malawi, a Dutch-Malawian collaboration has developed a high-resolution forecasting system that helps humanitarian organisations and local authorities identify where flooding is likely to occur and who may be affected. By integrating flash flood forecasts into an existing impact-based forecasting platform, the project turns weather information into practical early warnings.

Facts

  • Project type PfW Subsidy Project
  • Country Malawi
  • Partners Royal HaskoningDHV · Netherlands Red Cross / 510 · local partners in Malawi
  • Themes Flood risk · Early warning · Climate adaptation · Disaster risk reduction
  • Duration 1 November 2022 – 1 March 2024
  • Total budget €100,563
  • SDGs SDG 11 · SDG 13

Preparing for increasingly severe floods

Malawi has experienced an increase in the frequency and impact of major river and flash floods over recent decades. Climate change is adding to the risks, while vulnerable communities often have little time to respond when extreme rainfall occurs.

In Northern Malawi, limited detailed flood models and early-warning information made it difficult for humanitarian organisations and authorities to anticipate the local impact of flash floods. The Netherlands Red Cross’s 510 initiative had already developed the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) Portal, combining hazard information with data on people, infrastructure and vulnerability. However, the platform lacked the high-resolution modelling needed to forecast flash floods.

The objectives

The project aimed to integrate flash flood forecasting into the existing IBF Portal and test the approach in Karonga and Rumphi districts. Rather than simply predicting heavy rainfall, the system was designed to show where flooding could occur and what its consequences might be, helping humanitarian organisations and local authorities decide where and when preventive action is needed.

The approach

Royal HaskoningDHV and the Netherlands Red Cross’s 510 initiative combined high-resolution flood modelling with weather forecasts and impact data. The resulting module translates rainfall forecasts into maps of potential flood extent and impact. Integrating the module into the existing IBF Portal allows users to access forecasts and impact information through one online environment.

The pilot focused on Karonga and Rumphi in Northern Malawi, where flash floods pose a recurring threat to communities.

Through our collaboration with the Red Cross, we were able to deliver a platform that provides the timely insights needed to mitigate the impacts of both flash flooding and river overspills.

Herman de Jonge
Water Management Advisor, HydroLogic

The team

The project brought together Dutch expertise in flood modelling and humanitarian early-warning systems, working with local partners in Malawi.

  • Royal HaskoningDHV – Developed the high-resolution flash flood forecasting model and supported its integration into the existing platform.
  • Netherlands Red Cross / 510 – Provided the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) Portal, combining flood forecasts with information on vulnerable communities and infrastructure.
  • Local partners in Malawi – Contributed local knowledge and supported the use of early-warning information for flood preparedness.
  • Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) – Provides meteorological expertise and weather information.
  • Department of Water Resources (DWR), Malawi – Supports the use of flood forecasting information in national water management.
  •  Malawi Red Cross Society (MRCS) – Helps translate early warnings into local preparedness and community action.

Results and impact

The pilot successfully integrated Impact-Based Flash Flood Forecasting into the IBF Portal. Its high-resolution impact module identifies areas and communities at risk more precisely, supporting targeted preparedness and response before flooding occurs.

The system has remained operational after the project ended. Red Cross 510 continues to host it free of charge, and the Water Resources Department in Malawi is still using the platform. According to Royal HaskoningDHV, the department has expressed interest in scaling it up into a national system by integrating other early-warning systems developed in Malawi.

Because the approach builds on an existing platform, it could be adapted for other regions in Malawi and potentially other countries facing similar flash-flood risks.

Follow the Malawi flash flood forecasting journey

Reaching communities

A forecasting system only has value if warnings reach the people who need them. The project connects technical forecasting with humanitarian and community networks. Depending on local circumstances, information can be shared through radio broadcasts, WhatsApp groups, megaphones and other community communication systems, including with people who cannot access the online platform directly.

Looking ahead

Continued use of the operational platform offers a basis for broader integration of impact-based early-warning information in Malawi. Red Cross 510 is expected to keep hosting the system free of charge in the coming years, while national-scale integration remains an ambition rather than a completed outcome.

Why it matters

Traditional weather forecasts can indicate that extreme rainfall is coming, but not necessarily what it will mean on the ground. Impact-based forecasting combines weather and flood models with information about exposed communities and infrastructure. This helps authorities and humanitarian organisations act earlier and focus limited resources where they are most needed: forecasting not only what the weather will be, but what it will do.

Innovation in Progress

This project is part of Partners for Water’s Innovation in Progress series, highlighting innovative Dutch water solutions being tested and applied in international settings.